Lebanon in the Midst of the Storm

The Taef Agreement came in 1989 as an international settlement to put an end to the Lebanese little civil wars that broke in 1976. This agreement was nothing but a set of new rules meant to divide the power benefits (Lebanese Cake) among the warring Lebanese factions or sects, as per the new balance at the local level & in the region. The Lebanon with the Taef became a country governed by three presidents who are: the Maronite- Christian president of the republic, the Muslim-Sunnite President of the council of ministers (Prime minister) & the Shiite- President of the Parliament council (Speaker of the House). The Taef, which gave (more or less), an even distribution of power & benefits among those three presidents, made Lebanon a country impossible to govern without a regional or international arbitrator. It was Syria, which assumed this role in the post war period till the assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafic ALHARIRI on the 14th of February, 2005 & its withdrawal from the Lebanon.
Nowadays, the Lebanese system is in miss; the barometer cannot determine a point of reference upon which to calibrate the dynamic balance among the Lebanese sects that are affiliated directly or indirectly with the regional & international super powers.
The Arab-Palestinian Crisis, as well as the Iranian –American conflict, are the two main axes, which affect the dynamicity of the barometer. Furthermore, what increases the intensity of the crisis is the fact that these two axes are inter-correlated to form the heart of what is so called “the war of Gods on Jerusalem”.
So the crisis in the Lebanon is not but a true representation of the development of the cold- hot war on Middle East & Jerusalem; so that is why I believe that it would be impossible to SAAD ALHARIRI to form a viable government (in the near future), which is to govern the Lebanon. Thus, it is advisable that the young nominated prime minister make his own choice of the two already available to him, which is: form a weak non viable government (quickly) or leave the platform.
What is clear is that the post HARIRI’s (junior) Nomination period would be characterized more by political crisis, street confrontations & degradation of the state little power. Moreover, General Sleiman’s term of Presidency will turn out to be a true photo of President SARKIS’ term that played the role of an arbitrator & a counselor. Wisdom, openness & precaution are characters, which are highly cherished in these times of political turmoil in the country of the Cedars. Thus I doubt that the introduction of new blood would be of importance to the Lebanese current system; on the contrary it may cause a shock to the patient & accelerate its degradation. Meanwhile let us observe; since the players are mostly international.
Finally, I believe that it would be good that the patient (the Lebanon) would be given some morphine pills, since there will be no available remedies in the near future for the Arab-Israeli & the Iran-American conflicts.

Mazen H.ABBOUD

Denver/Colorado/USA

3/10/2009